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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."