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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.